Insights

2024 Marks a Geopolitical Watershed for Africa - and What it Has to do with your Business

Written by:

Ethel Kuuya who is the author of Leading Beyond Now - the Five Commitments to Make Africa Thrive and Founder CEO of Advisory Kulture

Advisory Kulture Contributors: Morlin Rusike - Associate Director, Cleopatra Agoro - Partner & Chief Growth Officer, and Nyaradzo Muguti - Partner and Chief Operations Officer.

We can expect a geopolitically charged year which comes on the back of increased coup activity, spreading rejection of global policy. As Africa asserts its presence on the global stage, there is a burgeoning demand for equity in international dealings. African states are reevaluating historical agreements, seeking economic independence, and pursuing political autonomy, marking a departure from a history of neocolonial practices. Read Ghana, and French speaking Africa’s rejection of the role France continues to play in its sovereignty , or more aptly, lack thereof.

Powerful African nations are navigating away from historical power imbalances, questioning the legitimacy of the West's influence.

Amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics, Africa stands at the cusp of unprecedented economic opportunities. The continent's demographic dividend, abundant resources, and changing global dynamics provide fertile ground for nations to chart a course toward sustainable development.

This year will be economically demanding as the touted demographic dividend of Africa expects countries to deliver on opportunity creation, equity and an environment in which they can thrive. This hitherto failure to deliver economic options will see more youth pursuing continental exodus while conversely the global north seeks to tighten immigration - well, if right wing policy prevails then banish it if possible.

If not continental exodus, the youth restlessness will play out politically - more voter apathy, more (possibly armed) resistance to oppressive regimes and a very likely more coup d'etat. The reality is both of these scenarios are plausible.  Africa stands at the forefront of a geopolitical shift, and is pressing ahead to redefine its role on the global stage.

As the UK grapples with the reality of Brexit, and ironically finds itself looking to immigrants to close it’s labour gaps amongst other domestic unfurling of dysfunctionality.

The (un)United States of America is fighting itself and the impact of that domestic insecurity will have a ripple effect on its foreign policy and relationships. A country that lives in it’s own - often globally disconnected - information environment, the integrity of its democracy guarding institutions are under threat.

On the African continent, Food security is already an issue with increased global temperatures, common regional influences of El Niño which include drier conditions in southern Africa and some areas in the Sahel; and wetter conditions in equatorial east Africa. The prevailing climate which has already resulted in crop failure and grain shortages in some states; a scenario exacerbated by the unabating war between Russia and Ukraine which has compromised grain exports.

The eruption of the Israel versus Hamas and Palestine war and the divide of stances on Ukraine and Russia as that war rages on is a critical complexity on the global stage.

So if ever there was a time to accept that the world is already in the midst of a step change, that time is now. Navigating and leading during a step changes requires seismic shifts in leadership approach and often, changes of leaders themselves.

Unlike any other, this year will separate future fit leaders from the rest. Something needs to shift in the intentionality of leaders. Intent is everything and the root of intent is commitment. An intention to create a better outcome is inextricably tied to how committed one is to doing what needs to be done for change to prevail and sustain.

What does this have to do with business leaders in Africa?

Only everything.

If your intention is to make money at any cost, and especially at the cost of humanity, the environment, and the future of generations then this is the point you stop reading. We are talking to leaders who are interested in a future that works for all.

You’re still here.

Whatever leadership toolkit, tactic, skill or playbook that got you through the last decade is almost certainly unlikely to be suitable for what lies ahead. Every leader needs to find a new depth of conviction, a new philosophy to drive their agenda. In a world that needs fixing, nothing but future fit intent will cut it.

Every business is a function of its macro and micro environment both of which have an inextricable impact on each other. The macro environment is unpredictable with only volatility assured. The micro environment is vulnerable as the skills base we rely on to drive many businesses in Africa is fluid and for the most part can’t be retained due to the macro pressures that the talent base has to endure.

Business leaders need a new employee value proposition that is strong enough to counter the unsexy macro environment that many would be and current employees - especially the youth - are running away from. Your value proposition must make it make sense for people to stay in the country.

We propose three approaches:

1. Industry Employee Value Propositions are the way to go. This means come together with your direct and indirect competitors to develop strategies to retain employees in your hiring pool. When someone moves from company to company the country (and your business) still business. But when someone leaves the country for a mirage of opportunities - every one looses.

2. You have to get involved in the politics. The politics in many African states are broken. Politicians operate in their own (largely fabricated) information environment. It is the role of business leaders to temper these delusions and influence policy in a way that works for all.

Of course both of these suggestions are like kryptonite to most business leaders. But the more you read from the old playbook the more you are certain of failure. The only way you can find these two strategies palatable and workable is if you shift your internal paradigm and philosophy to one that is commitment based to leading beyond now.

3. Commit  As Africa navigates this transformative phase, leaders play a pivotal role in shaping the continent's destiny. Five commitments - worthy custodianship, responsibility with influence, curiosity, wise counsel, and tethering to noble values - serve as guiding principles for leadership.

Commitment One ~ Worthy Custodianship: African leaders must commit to being worthy custodians of their nations, ensuring that decisions prioritise the well-being of the people and the sustainable development of the continent. Worthy custodianship is as much about sober acceptance of one’s

Commitment Two ~ Responsibility with Influence

Leaders should wield their influence responsibly, recognising the impact their decisions have on the continent's future and global dynamics.

Commitment Five ~ Curate Wise Counsel

Seeking and providing wise counsel contributes to informed decision-making, drawing from the collective intelligence of advisors and the experiences of diverse communities.

Commitment Four ~ Curiosity

Fostering a spirit of curiosity encourages continuous learning and adaptation to the evolving global landscape, ensuring that African leaders stay ahead of emerging challenges.

Commitment Five ~ Tethering Yourself to Noble Values:

Leaders should anchor their actions to noble values, including integrity, justice, and inclusivity, which will guide the continent towards a more equitable and prosperous future.

Operationalising The Five Commitments

Leaders should actively demonstrate these commitments through transparent governance, inclusive decision-making processes, and a dedication to the welfare of their stakeholders. By fostering collaboration, embracing technological innovation, and adhering to sustainable practices, African leaders can showcase the transformative potential of these commitments.

In conclusion, Africa's geopolitical resurgence, rising equity demands, and economic opportunities in 2024 mark a turning point in the continent's history. As leaders steer their interests through this transformative phase, embracing the five commitments becomes imperative for shaping a future where Africa stands not only as a participant but a leading force in global affairs.